Blog Bat Around:

The topic (courtesy of the excellent Dinged Corners blog): Which baseball card or set do you believe will be valuable in ten years? In other words, no matter what happens with the player(s) or industry going forward--injury, steroid accusations, drugs, gambling charges, the demise or ascendancy of Topps, Donruss and Upper Deck--what single card or set from baseball cards past or present do you believe is an absolute BUY and HOLD?

When I first read the idea for this topic I thought two things. First, that's an interesting idea. And second, I don't think there is such a thing.

Let me explain in reverse order. I don't believe there is such a thing as an absolute "buy and hold" card or set. Sure, the older sets seem to be safer bets...since you figure you won't hear about the stars of days gone by suddenly testing postives for chemicals that most of us haven't even heard of...but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

If Topps, Upper Deck, Donruss, or whoever decides to oversaturate the market once again, all baseball cards could go down in value. If they decide to release an autograph in every $1.99 pack, then autos will go down in value. If they decide to release three relics per pack, then relics will go down in value, etc. Basically, the card companies hold the power to reduce the value of anything they want (it should be noted that they don't, however, hold the power to increase value necessarily).

I think the topic is an interesting one though, because it might shed a little insight into the state of the hobby (at least amongst some of its most active, vocal participants). If everyone is as dour as I am, then perhaps the card companies need to do some immediate revisions to their product lineups!

That said, if I had to pick a current set that I think would be a good return on investment, I think I would pick any one of the retro themed sets (Topps Heritage, Allen & Ginter, or Goudey). Each of those sets has a nice balance of well-designed commons, some short prints (including some of rookies and stars), and some nice inserts / parallels. Of course, since I'm trying to build all three of these sets, it's probably no surprise that these are my picks for future values!