The real start of the baseball season is nearly here (the Reds should always be the harbinger of the beginning of the season; overseas games can be ignored)! With actual baseball games about to begin in earnest, it's a good time to take stock of how the Reds are predicted to fare this year.
We'll start with the PECOTA projections which, unfortunately, do not like the Reds' chances at all. In fact, PECOTA has the Reds predicted to finish dead last with a record of 74-88.
Over on ESPN, things aren't much better. ESPN has the Reds finishing with a record of 76-86, slightly better than PECOTA but still lousy.
The folks over at CBS Sports didn't put specific win-loss projections out there but they did (mostly) have the Reds finishing third in the NL Central this year.
Finally, the people at Baseball America also seem to agree with CBS Sports in that the Reds are a middle-of-the-pack type team in a crappy division.
Ugh. As a long-suffering Reds fan, a glance at the various projections seems to indicate that the suffering won't end in 2025. Truthfully, I tend to agree with most of the projections. The Reds have the potential to surprise people and be decent, but there are so many "what ifs" that have to go right for that to happen that simple mathematics suggests it won't actually occur. Of course, if the Reds do manage to make the post season, Terry Francona should get his Hall of Fame plaque immediately at the end of the season, no voting or waiting a set number of years after retirement necessary!
Not sure if this makes you feel better... but the A's are projected (by Pecota) to win less games than the Reds. Hopefully both of our teams surprise the experts :D
ReplyDeleteI don't think the Reds are too far off from making a splash. They have some nice young talent that could really be a difference maker.
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